This is a trilogy on ‘A New Liquidity Order’. The first part deals with the Bond Market Conundrum, while the other two parts of this complex and layered topic are the normalization of the term premium, the new equilibrium & its ramifications for risky assets.

The war for control of natural resources between the US and China took a turn for the worse following the events in Venezuela. It started with China using rare earths & other critical materials to counter Trump’s tariffs, and escalated rapidly after threats on Greenland, Iran...

There is an abundance of warnings of a stock market crash from institutions like the IMF, central bank officials and heads of investment banks. The warnings focus on AI valuations, which may prove unsustainable if economic growth slows.

The participation of foreign buyers (mainly Europe and Japan, China has sold nearly all of its Treasury holdings) in yesterday’s 10Y Treasury auction was 70%, up from 65% in Dec, and far above the 60% dreaded by markets. This is a resounding yes in a US dollar confidence...