In the long run, decarbonisation may create a structural coal trade deficit. The plunge last year gave rise to speculation that it’s undergoing a fast adjustment, but this may have been caused by one-off factors and the speed may slow in 2026-30.

Over the next two years the patterns of coal trade are bound to change as rerouting takes hold, as a result of a structural shift from an era of volume to an era of quality & efficiency that is now unfolding. This will permeate both our scenarios of a Tectonic-Break &...

The coal trade is facing two major forces, energy security & decarbonisation that are driving structural changes in seaborne trade patterns in the short- and long- term. At the same time, Asia is experiencing huge industrial expansion while navigating an increasingly volatile...

This is a trilogy on ‘A New Liquidity Order’. The first part deals with the Bond Market Conundrum, while the other two parts of this complex and layered topic are the normalization of the term premium, the new equilibrium & its ramifications for risky assets.

The war for control of natural resources between the US and China took a turn for the worse following the events in Venezuela. It started with China using rare earths & other critical materials to counter Trump’s tariffs, and escalated rapidly after threats on Greenland, Iran...

n economic theory, the short run equilibrium condition upon which the value of a currency is determined is that the current account deficit must equal the surplus in the capital account, whereas in the long run the current account must balance.

The important Fed decision yesterday was not the rate cut (or the guidance of future interest rates), but the termination of QT, effective Dec 1. Since the introduction of QT in 2022, the Fed has allowed Treasuries and MBS to mature without buying replacements, thus enabling the...