In the long run, decarbonisation may create a structural coal trade deficit. The plunge last year gave rise to speculation that it’s undergoing a fast adjustment, but this may have been caused by one-off factors and the speed may slow in 2026-30.

Over the next two years the patterns of coal trade are bound to change as rerouting takes hold, as a result of a structural shift from an era of volume to an era of quality & efficiency that is now unfolding. This will permeate both our scenarios of a Tectonic-Break &...

The coal trade is facing two major forces, energy security & decarbonisation that are driving structural changes in seaborne trade patterns in the short- and long- term. At the same time, Asia is experiencing huge industrial expansion while navigating an increasingly volatile...